Effects of global warming on trees and understorey plants at Swedish IM sites - a tentative approach
Bråkenhielm, S., and M. Köchy (2001)
Prediction of understorey vegetation change on former and current IM intensive plots in Sweden
- Atmospheric CO2 is doubled and warming effects (global temp. plus 2 to 4 °C) follow according to four General Circulation Models (GCM).
- Forest tree distributions change according to Sykes & Prentice (1995, 1996)
- Continued protection of the sites from management
- No barriers to the migration of plants
- Climate stabilized for at least 1000 years!
Correlation of present species abundance with environmental factors to predict the species' future abundance and distribution using forward stepwise regression
- Great changes in the southern half of the country and in the mountains
- Little change on some northern plots
- New species will enter the sites from the south
ICP IM 9th Task Force meeting. 3-5 May, Rome (Italy)